The spring rally that began back in January has officially pushed median home sale prices to their highest level in a year. In June, the median home sold for $440,600, representing a 2.18% month-over-month increase and a 1.83% year-over-year gain. This marks the fifth consecutive month of month-over-month price increases, and the median sale price has now surpassed the $432,700 peak we saw in June of last year. However, the affordability picture isn't quite as rosy as it was earlier in the year. Mortgage rates ticked up slightly to 6.43% in June, and the combination of rising prices and rates that have bounced off their March lows has pushed the median monthly P&I payment up to $2,274. While that's still 1.60% lower than the $2,311 the median homeowner was paying a year ago, the gap is shrinking fast. Back in January, the median P&I payment was $1,949, so monthly payments have risen by more than $300 in just five months. If this trend continues, the affordability gains that lower rates provided earlier in the year could be fully erased by the end of the summer.

After climbing steadily from the December low of 1,230,000, inventory levels appear to have plateaued. In June, there were 1,560,000 homes available for sale, representing a slight 0.64% month-over-month decline from the 1,570,000 we saw in May, though still 1.30% higher than where we were at this time last year. On the new listings front, 463,480 new listings hit the market in June, representing a 2.45% year-over-year increase but a 2.42% month-over-month decline from May. This pullback in both inventory and new listings could signal that the spring surge of supply is beginning to taper off, which would be notable given that June and July are typically peak months for inventory. If inventory begins to decline further while demand remains strong, we could see the market tighten up heading into the back half of the summer. On the other hand, inventory levels are still roughly in line with where they were last year, so there's no reason to panic just yet.

Existing home sales came in at 4,090,000 in June, representing a 4.07% year-over-year increase, the strongest year-over-year gain we've seen in quite some time. That said, sales did pull back by 2.39% from May's pace, which isn't unusual given the typical seasonality of the market. The year-over-year increase is the real headline here, as it tells us that buyers are meaningfully more active than they were at this point last year. This is likely being driven by a combination of factors: mortgage rates are still lower than they were a year ago, inventory is providing more options to choose from, and the steady march of price appreciation may be creating a sense of urgency among buyers who don't want to wait any longer. The question heading into the second half of the year is whether this momentum can be sustained. With mortgage rates hovering in the mid-6% range and monthly payments creeping higher, we could see some buyers pull back if affordability continues to erode.

June brought even more good news for East Bay homeowners, as prices continued to climb across both the single-family and condo markets. In Alameda County, the median single-family home sold for $1,320,750, representing a 1.52% increase on a year-over-year basis. Contra Costa County saw similar gains, with the median single-family home selling for $915,000, up 1.67% compared to last year. The real story this month, however, is the remarkable turnaround in the condo market. Alameda County condos surged 8.35% year-over-year, with the median condo selling for $600,000. This is a dramatic reversal from the double-digit declines we were seeing just a few months ago. Contra Costa County condos also performed well, rising 5.76% to a median sale price of $523,500. After a prolonged period of weakness, the condo market appears to have turned the corner.

Despite the arrival of summer, inventory levels in the East Bay remain well below where they were a year ago. Single-family home inventory stood at just 2,684 units in June, representing a 26.79% decline on a year-over-year basis. The condo market saw a similar trend, with inventory down 10.36% year-over-year to 986 units. This persistent lack of supply continues to be the driving force behind the price appreciation we're seeing across both markets. With fewer homes to choose from, buyers are competing aggressively for available listings, which is pushing prices higher.

The tight inventory environment is pushing single-family homes to sell at an even faster clip than we saw a year ago. The average single-family home in Alameda County sold in just 13 days, representing a 13.33% improvement on a year-over-year basis. Contra Costa County saw an even bigger improvement, with the average listing selling in 14 days, a 17.65% year-over-year decline in days on market. The condo market is moving a bit more slowly, with the average condo in Alameda County spending 32 days on the market and Contra Costa County condos spending 27 days. While condos are taking longer to sell than single-family homes, they're still moving at a reasonable pace given broader market conditions.